CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-05-17T09:24:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 May 18 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to a M3/2b flare at 17/0857
UTC from Region 1748 (N12E23, Dai/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with
this flare were Type II (376 km/s) and Type IV radio bursts as well as a
420 sfu Tenflare. At 17/0912 UTC, an associated partial halo coronal
mass ejection (CME) was observed off the east limb with an approximate
speed of 1498 km/s. WSA/ENLIL model results indicate an arrival time of
approximately 19/1400 UTC. Region 1748 continues to maintain a delta in
the leader spot with an east/west inversion line between the
intermediate and trailer spots. Slight growth was observed in the
intermediate area of Regions 1744 (N06W40, Dao/beta-gamma) and 1750
(S09W41, Cao/beta). The rest of the spotted regions remained relatively
stable or in slight decay.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels
(R1-Minor to R2-Moderate) with a chance for further X-class (R3-Strong)
activity from Region 1748.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit continued above the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold
during the period with a peak flux reading of 41 pfu at 17/1720 UTC.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to continue at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to continue above the
S1-Minor threshold with a chance for an additional shock enhancement
from the 17 May CME on 19 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 350 km/s to 420 km/s with
total field values between 4 to 7 nT. The Bz component did not vary
much beyond +/- 5 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive (away) until it
crossed into a negative (towards) sector at approximately 17/1350 UTC
and remained there until the end of the period. No significant
signature of the arrival of a CME from 15 May was observable in
ACE/SWEPAM data, however, lower energy protons measured with the
ACE/EPAM instrument continue to show an increase. This is possibly
indicative of the continued approach by the 15 May CME.
.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to continue at nominal levels with a
possible enhancement early on day 1 (18 May) due to an expected glancing
blow from the 15 May CME. WSA/ENLIL model results show another
enhancement to around 500 km/s by midday on day 2 (19 May) due to the
expected arrival of the 17 May CME. Wind speeds and magnetic activity
are expected to slowly decrease to nominal levels on day 3 (20 May) as
CME effects wane.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day 1 (18 May). There is still the possibility of an arrival of the
glancing blow from the 15 May CME early on 18 May, however the effects
are not expected to be significant. By midday on day 2 (19 May), the 17
May CME is expected to impact the geomagnetic field causing minor to
major storm (G1-Minor to G2-Moderate) levels. By day 3 (20 May),
conditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels as CME effects
wane.
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